The United States presidential election is in 10 days.
Here is a summary of the top 5 political issues making headlines today.
1. Trump campaign pins hopes of reelection on “hidden voters”
In the final days of the election the Trump campaign is once again hoping to pull off an
upset on the backs of voters that they insist are not being picked up by the polls.
Robert Cahaly, lead pollster at the Trafalgar Group, believes that the large swath of
polls showing a formidable Biden lead are once again missing individuals that support
the President strongly but are not frequently polled.
“What we’ve noticed is that these polls are predominantly missing the hidden Trump
vote.” Cahaly said Tuesday on Hannity. “There is a clear feeling among conservatives
and people that are for the president that they’re not interested in sharing their opinions
The Trafalgar Group was one of the few polling firms to correctly predict Donald
Trump’s surprise victory in traditionally blue states in the rustbelt.
There is some data to support this hypothesis, as Republicans have increased voter
registration in several states including swing states Florida, Pennsylvania and Arizona
2. Biden and Democrats scramble to clarify fossil fuel remarks
During Thursday night’s final presidential debate, former Vice President Joe Biden
remarked that a Biden presidency would put forward an energy policy that would move
America towards eliminating fossil fuels.
The Trump campaign was quick to jump on the remark to increase suspicion of Biden in fossil fuel producing swing states.
Biden has since been trying to clarify the remarks, and his campaign has made visits to
must win Pennsylvania in order to sure up support.
During the Democratic primary, Biden was one of few candidates that did not support a
ban on hydraulic fracking in an effort to win over communities in which the fossil fuel
industry is a major employer.
Despite his recent assurances the Trump campaign insists Biden’s remarks Thursday
night “put the nail in the coffin” for him in Pennsylvania.
According to pollster Nate Silver’s 538 election forecast Biden is favored to take
Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral votes in the election.
3. Half of Pennsylvania’s requested mail in ballots have been received
The Department of State in crucial swing state Pennsylvania has announced that
roughly half of all the requested mail in ballots in the state have been received.
According to Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar (D) nearly 1.5 million Pennsylvanians
have already cast their vote via mail or absentee ballots.
“It’s almost exactly the total number of Pennsylvanians who voted by mail in the
primary and we still have 11 days ago.” Boockvar said.
In recent weeks Republicans and Democrats have fought in the Pennsylvania
Supreme Court in an effort to discard certain ballots over ballot irregularities. On
Friday the court ruled in a six to one decision that ballots cannot be discarded if the
voter signature on the mailing envelope does not perfectly match the signature of said
voter on their drivers license.
Democrats hailed this decision was a victory for democracy while Republicans
claimed the ruling will lead to voter fraud.
4. Despite healthy leads, democrats still suffer from 2016 PTSD
Joe Biden is leading in virtually every swing state. Democrats are projected to add
seats in the House of Representatives and potentially take the Senate.
Then why are Democratic voters so skittish 10 days from election day?
Despite indications pointing to a happy election night for Democrats, many party rank
and file still have post traumatic stress disorder from 2016. Many fear that although
the polls show a blue romp, that Donald Trump and the Republicans will once again
manage a come from behind victory.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton held a lead similar to Biden’s that many pundits viewed as
insurmountable. However, as the final votes came in it was clear that she would not be
the next President. As a result, Democrats are taking nothing for granted this year.
“We are not letting off the gas at all this year.” Said an anonymous Democratic
operative in Pennsylvania. “We cannot afford to get complacent again. I tell everyone
to ignore the polls.”
5. Once again, it all comes down to Florida
Due to the unprecedented amount of mail in ballots it is unlikely that the world will
know who will be the next President of the United States on election night.
Election officials in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan do not expect to have all of the
votes counted for a few days after election day.
However, there may be one determining factor whether or not viewers will know of a winner on November 3rd: The state of Florida.
Donald Trump’s adopted home state has always been the perennial swing state in
U.S. presidential elections and this year is no different. As Florida currently allows for
extensive mail in ballot and early voting the state will probably be able to announce a
victor on election night.
According to pollster Nate Silver’s 538 website, should Donald Trump lose the state of
Florida there is virtually no viable path to the presidency for him.
A Biden win in Florida will put Trump’s chances of reelection to less than 1% according to Silver’s model.
However, a Trump victory would give the incumbent a 40% chance of victory and keep
hope alive for his campaign.
The bottom line is that if Florida is called for Biden election night, viewers can go to
bed knowing who will be the next president. However, If the sunshine state votes to
give Trump another four years, election night could become election week.