Here is a summary of the top 5 moderate/conservative headlines making news today.
1. Trump hopes new Republican voters carry him to re-election
While officially down in the polls, the Trump campaign has made a blitz across major swing states during the final days of the campaign. By attending these events one would not think the rallies were associated with a losing campaign but one that is on the verge of victory.
Donald Trump regularly points to the size of his rallies as opposed to Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s. However, crowd size is not the only thing that his campaign is excited about. A piece of data that is lighting a fire in this thus far fledging campaign is the number of rally attendees that did not vote in 2016 or have previously been registered as a Republican.
According to one anonymous Republican operative, at a recent Trump rally in Pennsylvania 30% of all attendees were not previously politically active (in terms of registration) or had voted for any candidate in the previous presidential election.
This piece of data has buoyed the Trump campaign’s hopes that the polls are wrong again and that their candidate can once again pull off the improbable.
2. Ignore the talking heads, Trump will do well with Hispanic voters.
The media has painted Donald Trump as a race-baiting xenophobe that is hell-bent on alienating Hispanic immigrants and citizens alike. For years, they attacked him for his immigration, economic and disaster relief policies as being harmful to Hispanic people. Yet, despite all of this Donald Trump outperformed previous Republican nominees Mitt Romney and John McCain with Hispanic voters in 2016. Don’t be fooled, he will outperform with this demographic in 2020 as well.
It should first be noted, the Hispanic vote in the United States is not monolithic. Puerto Rican and Mexican voters tend to be more liberal and support Democrats while Cubans and Venezuelans are more conservative, supporting Republicans. Donald Trump has spent years trying to consolidate support amongst the latter two groups and cutting into liberal inroads with the former two groups.
Trump has thrown plenty of red meat to Cuban and Venezuelan Americans (particularly in Florida) in recent months by describing Joe Biden as a socialist in hopes of pushing turnout amongst this group. It could be expected that Florida and her 29 electoral votes could be decided by these two voting groups.
On the other hand, Democratic operatives are alarmed as more liberal Hispanic voters have lagged in returning their mail in ballots in recent weeks. “It is absolutely crucial to get these voters to vote early, that way their votes are already counted come election day.” Said one Democratic operative.
It is entirely plausible that when all the votes are counted that Donald Trump receives an excess of 40% of the Hispanic vote, which would be unheard of for a Republican candidate.
a. With Weakness Among Hispanic Voters, Biden Trails in Texas – New York Times
c. The demographic that could tip Pennsylvania – Politico
3. Fox News ratings soar in October
As election day 2020 approaches, the Nielsen Company noted that cable news ratings for major U.S. news outlets hit record highs in the month of October. Despite CNN and MSNBC seeing extraordinarily high viewer numbers, Fox News pulled in the greatest ratings.
With 4.9 million viewers during primetime, Fox News notched their highest ratings in over 40 years of broadcasting.
It remains to be seen if the increase in viewership of a known conservative media outlet benefits Donald Trump’s election day odds as the campaign heads into the final stretch.
4. Without a victor in Florida on election night, we will be waiting for a while
In exactly one week America’s (seemingly endless) 2020 election will be brought to an end. However, as opposed to past elections Americans and the world will likely not know the victor of the presidency that night, unless the state of Florida can be called.
America’s foremost swing state has always adhered by its own set of rules, culturally and politically. Due to the sizable number of senior citizens in the state, Florida has allowed for extensive early voting and mail in ballot opportunities for voters. Due to their election infrastructure, there is a fair chance that all of the votes in Florida will be counted on election night while other swing states will be left counting for days.
If Florida is able to name a winner on election night, it could make an early election night. Donald Trump cannot win the presidency without winning the state of Florida. If Joe Biden is announced the winner, viewers can almost be certain he will be the next president. Should Trump take the sunshine state or the state victor is not certain, viewers can expect a long wait before a winner is determined in other states.
b. When to expect election results – Washington Post
5. Election prediction: Trump’s ground game will win it for him
In American presidential politics, four years really have proven to make a difference. In 2016, Hillary Clinton was the odds on favorite to win the presidency for multiple reasons chief amongst which was her get out the vote operation. Secretary Clinton had large amounts of organizers on the ground in swing states getting voters to the polls while Donald Trump largely campaigned through tweets.
In order to win a large campaign in American politics it is key that candidates have a winning message and a winning “ground game”. Due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, only one presidential candidate has a fully built out get out the vote operation this year and his name is Donald Trump.
In the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Biden campaign made a decision to cease direct voter contact operations in an effort to slow the spread of the virus. The Trump campaign on the other hand doubled down on their actions, spending millions of dollars on voter contact over the last several months.
The Biden campaign has just resumed voter contact operations in certain swing states but it may be too late.
If this campaign is decided not by message but by which campaign best gets their voters to the voting booths, look for a Trump victory after the polls close.